Salvador Perez's home run prop at home games represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball betting, going under in 54 of 59 games (91.5% under rate) with an average of just 0.08 homers per game against a 0.5 line. This extreme underperformance at Kauffman Stadium creates a clear betting edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
Salvador Perez's home run struggles at Kauffman Stadium stem from the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions and environmental factors that suppress offensive output. The Royals' home venue features deep foul territory and expansive outfield dimensions that turn potential home runs into routine fly outs. Perez's 0.08 home run average represents a massive 84% underperformance versus the standard 0.5 line, indicating the market consistently overvalues his power potential at home. The 14-game under streak and historical 22-game under streak demonstrate this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern tied to venue-specific factors. Perez's swing mechanics and launch angle profile appear poorly suited to Kauffman Stadium's dimensions, as evidenced by the extreme consistency of this trend across multiple seasons. The -83.8% ROI on overs versus +74.7% on unders quantifies the market's mispricing. With only 5 overs in 59 games, regression seems unlikely given the structural advantages favoring pitchers at this venue. The trend's persistence across different lineup constructions and opposing pitching suggests the primary driver is environmental rather than situational.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Salvador Perez's home run under at Kauffman Stadium offers exceptional value with a 91.5% hit rate and +74.7% ROI. The combination of ballpark suppression, consistent underperformance, and market overvaluation creates a rare edge. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as Perez averages just 0.08 homers per home game. The primary risk is an unusually favorable wind or facing an extremely hittable pitcher, but the venue's structural advantages make the under the clear play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Salvador Perez props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Salvador Perez's Home Runs prop record home games?
Salvador Perez has gone 5-54-0 on his home runs prop in home games, hitting the over just 8.5% of the time across 59 games. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball with 54 unders in 59 attempts.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Salvador Perez Home Runs home games?
Bet the under on Salvador Perez's home runs prop in home games. With a 91.5% under rate, 0.08 average versus 0.5 line, and +74.7% ROI, this represents exceptional value with minimal risk at Kauffman Stadium.
What's Salvador Perez's average Home Runs home games?
Salvador Perez averages 0.08 home runs per game at home, creating a massive -0.42 differential versus the typical 0.5 line. This 84% underperformance versus the market expectation drives the exceptional under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Salvador Perez's home run under when the line is 0.5 at Kauffman Stadium, especially against quality pitching. Avoid in extreme weather conditions or against struggling pitchers, but the venue's dimensions favor the under regardless.