Salvador Perez's home run props present one of the most lopsided betting edges in baseball, with unders hitting at an exceptional 89% rate (105-13-0) across 118 games. His 0.11 average sits 0.4 homers below the typical 0.51 line, creating massive value on the under with +69.9% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Salvador Perez's power decline and the betting market's slow adjustment. At 34 years old, Perez has transformed from a consistent 20+ home run threat into a singles hitter, averaging just one homer every nine games. His 0.11 per-game average represents a dramatic shift from his prime years, yet sportsbooks continue setting lines around 0.5, creating a persistent 0.4-homer gap that bettors have exploited ruthlessly. The 11-game under streak currently running isn't an anomaly—it's the norm, with his longest over streak maxing out at just one game. This suggests fundamental changes in Perez's approach or physical capabilities rather than temporary variance. The -79% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been hammering unders, yet the line hasn't corrected proportionally. Age-related power decline in catchers is well-documented and typically irreversible, making this trend likely to persist. The sample size of 118 games spanning over a year eliminates small-sample concerns, while the consistency across different periods suggests this isn't situational but systemic.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Salvador Perez's home run props represent premium betting value with an 89% hit rate and +69.9% ROI on unders. The 0.4-homer gap between his actual production and typical lines creates a mathematical edge that age-related decline makes sustainable. Target any line at 0.5 or higher, with maximum value when books offer plus odds on the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Salvador Perez's Home Runs prop record all games?
Salvador Perez's home run props show a remarkable 13-105-0 over/under record across 118 games, meaning unders have hit 89% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop betting trends in baseball, with overs hitting just 11% of tracked games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Salvador Perez Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER on Salvador Perez home run props with high confidence. The 89% success rate and +69.9% ROI on unders, combined with his 0.11 average versus 0.5+ lines, creates exceptional value that age-related decline makes sustainable.
What's Salvador Perez's average Home Runs all games?
Salvador Perez averages 0.11 home runs per game, sitting 0.4 homers below the typical 0.51 line. This massive gap means he needs to hit a homer every 2-3 games to reach the over, but he's averaging one every nine games instead.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Salvador Perez home run unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, especially with plus odds. His consistency across all situations means timing matters less than line value, though current 11-game under streak suggests continued opportunity.