Sal Frelick's Total Bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over rate across his last 10 games. With a brutal -1.6 differential between his 1.0 average and typical 2.6 lines, the under delivers exceptional +52.7% ROI. This represents a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Sal Frelick's Total Bases performance reveals a player struggling to generate extra-base production, creating systematic value on the under. His 1.0 average against 2.6 lines represents a massive 62% gap that suggests either inflated market expectations or a genuine power decline. The current five-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Frelick appears locked into a singles-heavy approach, potentially due to mechanical adjustments, situational hitting, or simply facing tougher pitching. The 20% over rate across 10 games is statistically significant enough to suggest genuine skill-based regression rather than temporary slump. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - no extended hot streaks to muddy the waters. The -61.8% ROI on overs shows how severely the market has mispriced his current capabilities. However, small sample size remains a concern, and any mechanical adjustments or lineup changes could quickly reverse this trend. The lack of available splits data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but the raw numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose power output has cratered below market expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sal Frelick's Total Bases props offer compelling under value based on his 1.0 average versus 2.6 typical lines and five-game under streak. Target games where he faces quality pitching or hits in lower lineup spots. Primary risk is sample size limitations and potential mechanical corrections that could restore power production quickly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Sal Frelick props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sal Frelick's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Sal Frelick went 2-8-0 over/under on Total Bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs. He averaged 1.0 total bases against lines typically set around 2.6, creating a significant -1.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sal Frelick Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Sal Frelick's Total Bases props. His 1.0 average versus 2.6 lines and current five-game under streak create strong value, with under bets generating +52.7% ROI over this sample.
What's Sal Frelick's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Sal Frelick averaged 1.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.6. This -1.6 differential represents a 62% gap below market expectations, indicating significant under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sal Frelick Total Bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or hits lower in the lineup. Avoid when he's facing weak bullpens late in games or shows signs of mechanical adjustments.