Sal Frelick's Total Bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 28.0% of overs across 25 games with a massive -1.0 average differential to the line. The under delivers +37.5% ROI while overs hemorrhage -46.5%, making this a clear fade-the-over situation.
Expert Analysis
Frelick's home Total Bases struggles stem from his contact-heavy approach that doesn't translate to extra-base power at American Family Field. Averaging just 0.88 total bases against a typical 1.9 line reveals a fundamental mismatch between his skill set and betting market expectations. The rookie outfielder's profile suggests a slap hitter who relies on singles and walks rather than doubles or home runs, particularly evident in his home environment where he's managed just seven overs in 25 attempts. The -1.0 differential isn't just poor luck—it reflects a systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who may be pricing in development that hasn't materialized. His current three-game under streak and previous five-game under streak indicate this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. The 72.0% under rate suggests books are slow to adjust, creating ongoing value. Frelick's approach works for batting average and on-base percentage, but Total Bases props require extra-base hits he simply doesn't produce consistently at home. This trend has shown remarkable persistence across different pitching matchups and game situations, indicating the underlying factors—his swing mechanics and approach—aren't changing significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Frelick's home Total Bases props offer consistent value with the under hitting 72.0% of the time and delivering solid ROI. The key edge lies in his singles-heavy approach being systematically overvalued by oddsmakers expecting more power development. Target games where the line sits at 1.5 or higher for maximum value, though avoid spots against particularly weak pitching where variance could spike.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sal Frelick's Total Bases prop record home games?
Frelick's Total Bases prop at home shows a 7-18-0 record, hitting overs just 28.0% of the time. This translates to unders cashing 72.0% of games across a 25-game sample from July 2023 through September 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sal Frelick Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Frelick's Total Bases at home. The 72.0% under rate and +37.5% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines sit at 1.5 or higher. His singles-heavy approach is consistently overvalued by oddsmakers.
What's Sal Frelick's average Total Bases home games?
Frelick averages 0.88 total bases in home games, creating a massive -1.0 differential versus the typical 1.9 line. This gap reflects his contact-heavy approach that produces singles but lacks the extra-base power oddsmakers price in.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Frelick Total Bases unders when lines are 1.5 or higher at home games. Avoid betting against particularly weak pitching staffs where his limited power could still reach the number through fortunate contact and defensive lapses.