Sal Frelick's Total Bases prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 29.2% of overs across 24 road contests. His 1.21 average sits 0.8 bases below the typical 2.04 line, generating +35.2% ROI on unders. This represents a clear lean under with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Sal Frelick's road struggles with Total Bases props stem from his profile as a contact-oriented outfielder who lacks the power ceiling needed to consistently exceed inflated lines. His 1.21 away average reveals a player whose game doesn't translate well to unfamiliar ballparks, where timing and comfort zones become critical factors. The 0.8-base deficit between his production and the typical line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his road limitations. Frelick's current three-game under streak aligns with his longest under run of six games, indicating this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. The 29.2% over rate across 24 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -44.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his road power potential. His contact-heavy approach generates singles and doubles at home but struggles to produce the extra-base hits necessary to clear elevated Total Bases lines in hostile environments. The absence of meaningful power surges in away games creates a reliable betting edge that appears sustainable given his playing style and the structural challenges facing young players on the road.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Frelick's 29.2% over rate in away games creates a clear mathematical edge, supported by his consistent inability to reach the 2.04 average line on the road. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The main risk involves potential lineup changes or a breakout power surge, but his contact-first approach suggests continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Sal Frelick props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sal Frelick's Total Bases prop record away games?
Sal Frelick's Total Bases prop record in away games stands at 7-17-0 over/under, hitting just 29.2% of overs across 24 road contests. This translates to a devastating -44.3% ROI on overs while generating +35.2% returns on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sal Frelick Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Sal Frelick's Total Bases in away games. His 29.2% over rate and 1.21 road average create a clear mathematical edge against typical 2.0+ lines. Target unders when lines exceed 2.0 bases for maximum value.
What's Sal Frelick's average Total Bases away games?
Sal Frelick averages 1.21 Total Bases in away games, sitting 0.8 bases below the typical 2.04 line. This significant deficit demonstrates consistent underperformance relative to market expectations and creates sustainable betting value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sal Frelick Total Bases unders in away games when lines reach 2.0 or higher, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His contact-first approach and road struggles create the most profitable opportunities against inflated market expectations.