Rob Refsnyder's home run props present a historically lopsided under opportunity, hitting just 2-14-0 O/U (12.5% overs) with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the typical 0.5 line. This extreme underperformance generates massive +67.0% under ROI. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Refsnyder's home run production represents one of baseball's most reliable under trends, with his 0.12 average sitting dramatically below standard 0.5+ lines. The 87.5% under rate across 16 games isn't fluky variance—it reflects a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and Refsnyder's actual power profile. As primarily a contact hitter filling utility roles, Refsnyder lacks the consistent at-bat volume and raw power that home run props demand. His current 8-game under streak and longest under streak of 8 games demonstrate the persistence of this trend. The -76.1% over ROI shows how badly the market has mispriced his power ceiling. While small sample concerns exist with 16 games, the consistency is remarkable—only managing back-to-back overs once in this entire span. The 6-game current under streak suggests no recent power surge, and his role as a platoon player limits exposure to favorable matchups. Regression toward league-average home run rates seems unlikely given Refsnyder's established profile as a low-power contact hitter who maximizes value through versatility rather than extra-base production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Refsnyder's 0.12 home run average creates massive value against standard 0.5 lines, supported by an 87.5% under rate and +67.0% ROI. Target games where he's facing quality pitching or in larger ballparks to maximize edge. Main risk is a random hot streak, but his established contact-over-power profile makes sustained home run production unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rob Refsnyder's Home Runs prop record all games?
Rob Refsnyder's home run prop record all games stands at 2-14-0 O/U, hitting just 12.5% overs across 16 games. He averages 0.12 home runs versus typical 0.5+ lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rob Refsnyder Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Rob Refsnyder's home runs all games with high confidence. His 87.5% under rate and +67.0% under ROI represent exceptional value, especially against standard 0.5 lines that drastically overestimate his power production capabilities.
What's Rob Refsnyder's average Home Runs all games?
Rob Refsnyder averages 0.12 home runs all games, sitting 0.4 below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential reflects his contact-first approach and utility role, making under bets extremely profitable with +67.0% ROI over 16 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rob Refsnyder home run unders when he faces quality pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His established low-power profile makes these conditions ideal for maximizing the already strong 87.5% under rate and +67.0% ROI edge.