Riley Greene's home run props have been ice cold, going under in 9 of 10 games with just 0.1 home runs per game against 0.5 lines. This 10% over rate represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, generating 71.8% ROI on under bets.
Expert Analysis
Riley Greene's power outage over this 10-game stretch reveals a hitter struggling with the fundamental mechanics needed for home run production. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per game against consistent 0.5 lines, Greene has managed only one home run across 10 contests, creating an 8-game homerless drought that speaks to deeper swing issues rather than simple variance. The 90% under rate isn't just impressive—it's historically significant for a player with Greene's profile. Young hitters often experience prolonged power slumps as they adjust to advanced pitching, and Greene appears caught in that developmental phase. The -0.4 differential between his production and the betting line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form, creating continued value on under bets. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—Greene isn't alternating between multi-homer games and zeros, he's simply not connecting for power at all. The 71.8% ROI on unders reflects a market inefficiency where Greene's reputation exceeds his current production. Until we see mechanical adjustments or a clear breakout performance, this power drought appears sustainable rather than due for immediate regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Riley Greene's 90% under rate over 10 games represents exceptional betting value, especially with the market still setting lines at 0.5 home runs. His current 8-game homerless streak suggests mechanical issues that won't resolve overnight. The ideal condition is any game with a 0.5 home run line, as Greene has consistently failed to reach this threshold. The main risk is a single breakout game ending the streak, but the underlying swing issues make continued under production most likely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Riley Greene's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Riley Greene has gone 1-9-0 on home run over/under props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once while going under 9 times. This represents a 10% over rate with only 0.1 home runs per game against 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Riley Greene Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Riley Greene's home run props with high confidence. His 90% under rate over 10 games, combined with 71.8% ROI on under bets, makes this one of baseball's strongest trends for consistent profit.
What's Riley Greene's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Riley Greene is averaging just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.4 short of the typical 0.5 home run betting line. This massive underperformance creates exceptional value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Riley Greene's home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, which has been consistent recently. His current 8-game homerless streak and mechanical issues suggest continued under production regardless of opponent or venue.