Riley Greene's home run props present a stark betting opportunity with just 18.0% overs across 89 games and a massive -65.7% ROI on overs. The center fielder averages only 0.2 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, creating consistent value on unders with +56.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Riley Greene's home run production reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. Averaging 0.2 home runs per game against standard 0.5 lines creates a sustainable edge that has persisted across 89 games spanning nearly two seasons. The 18.0% over rate isn't just low—it's systematically exploitable, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted for Greene's contact-oriented approach and gap power rather than true home run threat. His longest under streak of 13 games demonstrates the consistency of this pattern, while the brief two-game over streak represents the ceiling rather than a trend reversal. The -0.3 differential between actual production and betting lines indicates this isn't random variance but a structural mispricing. Greene's profile as a young outfielder in Detroit's spacious Comerica Park compounds the under case, as his line-drive swing naturally produces fewer home runs than the market assumes. The 56.6% ROI on unders across this sample size suggests books remain slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Riley Greene's 18.0% over rate across 89 games represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props. The -0.3 differential between his 0.2 average and typical 0.5 lines creates consistent value, especially when books set standard home run props. Target games where Greene faces quality pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly parks to maximize edge. The primary risk is a sudden power surge, but his contact-first approach suggests sustainable under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Riley Greene's Home Runs prop record all games?
Riley Greene has gone over his home run prop in just 16 of 89 games (18.0% rate) with an 0-73 under record. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in recent baseball history, creating massive under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Riley Greene Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Riley Greene's home run props with high confidence. His 0.2 average versus 0.5 lines and 56.6% under ROI across 89 games creates exceptional value, especially against quality pitching in favorable ballparks.
What's Riley Greene's average Home Runs all games?
Riley Greene averages 0.2 home runs per game compared to typical 0.5 betting lines, creating a -0.3 differential. This gap between production and market expectations drives the consistent under value across his 89-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Riley Greene home run unders when he faces above-average pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His contact-first approach and Comerica Park's dimensions create ideal conditions for continuing the under trend with maximum edge.