Rafael Devers's total bases props have been an absolute goldmine for under bettors, going 0-10 over his last 10 games with a devastating 0.0% over rate. His 0.7 average sits 2.2 bases below the typical 2.9 line, generating a perfect -100% ROI on overs versus +90.9% on unders. This represents a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Devers's total bases collapse over this 10-game stretch represents one of the most extreme underperformances we've tracked this season. Averaging just 0.7 total bases per game against lines typically set around 2.9 suggests either a significant injury concern, mechanical issues, or simply brutal luck that's due for regression. The complete absence of even a single over in 10 attempts is statistically remarkable for a player of Devers's caliber, who entered the season as a legitimate 25-30 home run threat. This level of sustained futility often indicates underlying factors beyond normal variance—whether it's a nagging injury affecting his swing mechanics, opposing teams making successful adjustments to his approach, or a combination of poor contact quality and unfavorable sequencing. The 2.2 base differential per game is massive in total bases betting, where margins are typically much tighter. However, the sustainability of this trend becomes questionable given Devers's established track record and the mathematical improbability of continued zeros. The perfect under record creates both opportunity and danger—while the trend has been profitable, regression toward his career norms becomes increasingly likely with each additional game. The key question isn't whether Devers will eventually break this streak, but rather timing the inevitable correction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. While Devers's 10-game under streak defies baseball logic and regression is inevitable, the underlying factors driving this collapse haven't shown clear signs of resolution. The 0.7 average creates significant cushion even if he improves marginally, and books may be slow to adjust lines downward. However, this is a fade-the-trend spot where one good game breaks everything. Target unders when lines remain inflated above 2.5, but avoid when books drop to 1.5 or lower.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rafael Devers's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Devers has gone 0-10 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, a perfect under record with 0.0% over rate. He's averaging just 0.7 total bases per game, creating a -100% ROI on overs and +90.9% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rafael Devers Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Devers's total bases props while this trend persists. The 2.2 base deficit per game provides substantial cushion, but avoid betting when lines drop below 2.0 as regression becomes increasingly likely with each game.
What's Rafael Devers's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Devers is averaging 0.7 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.9. This massive 2.2 base differential represents one of the largest underperformances we've tracked for an established hitter this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Devers total bases unders when books maintain inflated lines above 2.5, typically in favorable hitting environments or against weaker pitching. Avoid betting when lines adjust below 2.0 or during potential breakout spots against struggling arms.