Rafael Devers has been a consistent under performer in Total Bases props at home, hitting just 27.6% overs with an 8-21 record. The -1.0 average differential between his performance (1.55) and typical lines (2.57) creates a substantial edge for under bettors seeking reliable fade opportunities.
Expert Analysis
Devers' home Total Bases struggles represent one of the more reliable trends in baseball props, with his 1.55 average falling a full base below standard lines. This isn't a small sample fluke—across 29 games spanning over a year, the consistency is remarkable. The 7-game under streak within this sample suggests something systematic rather than random variance. Home ballparks can create deceptive environments where hitters appear more comfortable but actually face subtle disadvantages like familiar pitcher scouting, adjusted approaches, or even comfort-induced complacency. Devers' 38.2% ROI on unders indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this pattern, likely because casual bettors assume home field advantage applies universally. The concerning factor is sustainability—elite hitters like Devers typically don't maintain such dramatic home/road splits indefinitely. However, the magnitude of the differential and the recent streak continuation suggest this trend has staying power, at least in the short term.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 72.4% under rate combined with the significant -1.0 differential creates exceptional value that the market hasn't corrected. Target this play when Devers is priced at 2.5+ total bases at Fenway, especially against quality pitching. The primary risk is natural regression, but the trend's persistence and current 5-game under streak suggest continued opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rafael Devers's Total Bases prop record home games?
Devers has gone 8-21 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 27.6% of his overs. His average of 1.55 total bases falls significantly short of typical 2.57 lines, creating a -1.0 differential across 29 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rafael Devers Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER on Devers Total Bases at home with high confidence. The 72.4% under rate and 38.2% ROI provide exceptional value, especially when he's priced at 2.5+ bases. This is one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities.
What's Rafael Devers's average Total Bases home games?
Devers averages just 1.55 Total Bases in home games compared to typical lines around 2.57, creating a massive -1.0 differential. This means he's consistently falling a full base short of market expectations at Fenway Park.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Devers Total Bases unders when he's priced at 2.5+ bases at Fenway Park, particularly against quality starting pitching. The trend shows strongest value during his current form, with 5 consecutive unders adding momentum to the pattern.