Pete Alonso's total bases production has cratered over his last 10 games, going under in 9 of 10 contests with a brutal 1.1 average against typical 2.7 lines. This 90% under rate represents one of the most reliable prop trends in baseball, creating exceptional value on future under bets.
Expert Analysis
Pete Alonso's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of late-season factors that rarely correct quickly. His 1.1 average represents a staggering 59% decline from typical line expectations, indicating either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or complete timing disruption at the plate. The consistency of this downturn—hitting under in 9 of 10 games with an active 8-game under streak—suggests systemic problems rather than random variance. Late September baseball often exposes players dealing with accumulated fatigue, minor injuries, or mental exhaustion from playoff pressure. Alonso's power-dependent profile makes him particularly vulnerable to these factors, as total bases props rely heavily on extra-base hits that require peak timing and bat speed. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market has been slow to adjust, likely overvaluing Alonso's reputation and season-long numbers while underweighting his current form. This creates a rare situation where recent performance significantly outweighs historical data. The trend's persistence suggests underlying issues that won't resolve overnight, making this more than a temporary slump. Books typically need 3-5 games of contrary evidence before meaningfully adjusting lines, giving sharp bettors a window to capitalize.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Alonso's 90% under rate over 10 games indicates legitimate decline rather than variance, creating line value as books lag behind his current form. Target under bets when lines exceed 2.0 total bases, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his struggles amplify. Main risk is immediate turnaround if underlying issues resolve, but the trend's consistency suggests continued value exists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Pete Alonso has gone under his total bases prop in 9 of his last 10 games, a 90% under rate. He's averaging just 1.1 total bases against typical lines around 2.7, creating a massive 1.6 differential favoring unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Pete Alonso's total bases props. His 90% under rate and 8-game active streak indicate legitimate decline, not variance. Target lines above 2.0 total bases for maximum value until he shows consistent signs of recovery.
What's Pete Alonso's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Pete Alonso is averaging 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games, running 1.6 bases below typical prop lines around 2.7. This 59% decline from expectations represents one of the most dramatic performance drops in recent baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Pete Alonso total bases unders when lines exceed 2.0, especially in day games or against quality pitching where his current struggles amplify. Avoid after rest days or in crucial games where motivation might spark temporary improvement.