Pete Alonso's Total Bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, with just 15 overs in 44 games (34.1% rate) and a stark -0.7 differential from the typical 2.45 line. The under delivers 25.8% ROI while overs hemorrhage 34.9%, creating a clear lean under for home games.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of systematic overvaluation in Pete Alonso's home Total Bases props. Averaging just 1.77 total bases against lines typically set around 2.45, Alonso consistently falls short of inflated expectations at Citi Field. This 0.7-base differential represents significant market inefficiency, likely driven by casual bettors overvaluing the slugger's home run reputation without considering his all-or-nothing approach. Alonso's power-heavy profile creates feast-or-famine outcomes that favor the under when oddsmakers set lines anticipating consistent extra-base production. The current three-game under streak, following a season-high eight-game under run, suggests this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Citi Field's dimensions and Alonso's pull-heavy tendencies may contribute to more routine singles and outs than the market prices in. The 25.8% under ROI demonstrates this edge has been profitable over a meaningful 44-game sample, while the catastrophic -34.9% over ROI shows how badly the market misprices these props. Without significant lineup or ballpark changes, this trend appears sustainable given the fundamental mismatch between perception and production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.7 differential and 65.9% under rate create a clear edge, though regression risk exists given Alonso's proven power. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, especially during day games when offensive numbers typically decline. The main risk is a hot streak that could quickly erode this edge, but the persistent underperformance suggests sustainable value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Pete Alonso props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Total Bases prop record home games?
Pete Alonso's Total Bases prop record in home games shows 15 overs and 29 unders across 44 games, translating to a 34.1% over rate. This demonstrates consistent underperformance against market expectations at Citi Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Pete Alonso's Total Bases in home games. The data shows 65.9% under success rate with 25.8% ROI, while overs lose money at -34.9%. The trend is clear and profitable.
What's Pete Alonso's average Total Bases home games?
Pete Alonso averages 1.77 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.45 line, creating a significant -0.7 differential. This gap represents consistent underperformance that the market hasn't properly adjusted for over 44 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Alonso Total Bases unders when the line is 2.5 or higher in home games, particularly during day games. Avoid betting after multiple over results, as short-term variance can temporarily disrupt this long-term edge.