Pete Alonso has been a hits under goldmine, going 1-9-0 O/U with just a 10.0% over rate in his last 10 games. Averaging only 0.7 hits against a 2.1 line creates a massive -1.4 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Pete Alonso's hits production has fallen off a cliff in the season's final stretch, creating one of the most exploitable under trends in baseball. The 0.7 hits average against a 2.1 line represents a staggering 33% performance rate, suggesting either books are slow to adjust or there's a fundamental shift in Alonso's approach. The eight-game under streak isn't random variance—it's systematic failure to reach a line that assumes roughly two hits per game. Late-season factors likely contribute: opposing pitchers have extensive scouting reports, Alonso may be pressing with playoff implications, and fatigue accumulates over 162 games. The -80.9% over ROI confirms this isn't just bad luck but a genuine edge. However, regression concerns loom large. Alonso posted a .240 average with decent contact rates throughout 2024, making this drought somewhat unsustainable. The sample size, while compelling, remains relatively small for drawing long-term conclusions. Books will eventually adjust lines downward if this continues, eliminating the value. The key question becomes whether this represents a temporary slump or a more permanent decline in Alonso's hit-generating ability during high-pressure situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1-9-0 record and -1.4 differential create clear value on Alonso hits unders, but regression risk prevents a stronger stance. Target games where the line remains at 1.5 or higher, as books appear slow to adjust to his recent struggles. Main risk is variance correction—Alonso's underlying skills suggest this drought won't last forever.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Pete Alonso has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his hits props in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 10.0% of the time. He's currently riding an eight-game under streak, making this one of the most consistent under trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Pete Alonso's hits props. The 1-9-0 record and 0.7 hits average against a 2.1 line create significant value. However, use medium bet sizing due to potential regression as this drought appears unsustainable long-term.
What's Pete Alonso's average Hits last 10 games?
Pete Alonso is averaging just 0.7 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.1 line, creating a massive -1.4 differential. This 33% success rate represents one of the worst hit prop performances in recent memory.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Alonso hits unders when lines remain at 1.5 or higher, as books appear slow to adjust. Avoid betting after any multi-hit game, as variance correction becomes more likely following extended cold streaks like his current eight-game under run.