Pete Alonso's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with a dismal 35.2% over rate across 88 games. His 0.93 average falls significantly short of the typical 1.26 line, creating a -0.33 differential that has generated +23.7% ROI on unders. The current 8-game under streak reinforces this systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Pete Alonso's hits prop reveals a systematic market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The slugger's 0.93 hits per game average consistently falls short of oddsmakers' expectations, suggesting books are pricing his name recognition rather than his actual contact performance. This 88-game sample spans over a year, providing statistical significance that transcends small sample noise. The -32.8% ROI on overs indicates consistent market overvaluation, while the +23.7% under ROI demonstrates sustainable profitability. Alonso's power-first approach naturally limits his hit frequency—he's built to launch home runs, not slap singles. The current 8-game under streak, approaching his season-long 9-game maximum, suggests this trend maintains momentum rather than being due for regression. Books appear to consistently set lines around 1.26 based on Alonso's reputation as an offensive cornerstone, but his actual production pattern favors quality over quantity. The lack of split variations indicates this edge persists regardless of opponent, venue, or situation, making it a reliable foundational play rather than a situational spot.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pete Alonso's hits prop offers one of the most consistent edges in player props, with his power-focused approach systematically underperforming inflated lines. Target this play when the line sits at 1.5 or higher for maximum value, as his 0.93 average creates substantial cushion. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the 88-game sample suggests sustainable market mispricing rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Hits prop record all games?
Pete Alonso has gone under his hits prop in 57 of 88 games (64.8%) with only 31 overs, producing a terrible 35.2% over rate that demonstrates consistent market overvaluation of his contact ability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Hits all games?
Bet under on Pete Alonso's hits props. His 0.93 average significantly trails typical 1.26 lines, generating +23.7% ROI on unders across 88 games while overs lose -32.8%, making this a high-confidence systematic edge.
What's Pete Alonso's average Hits all games?
Pete Alonso averages 0.93 hits per game compared to the typical 1.26 line, creating a significant -0.33 differential. This gap reflects his power-first approach that prioritizes home runs over contact frequency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Alonso hits unders when lines reach 1.5 or higher for maximum value. His consistent pattern works across all situations, but higher lines provide the best risk-reward ratio given his 0.93 average.