Pedro Pagés has been a home run desert over his last 10 games, going under the prop in 90% of contests with just one homer total. The Cardinals catcher is averaging 0.1 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating massive value on the under with a current six-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Pagés's power drought during this 10-game sample from late July through September. His 0.1 home run average represents a catastrophic -0.4 differential from the standard 0.5 line, indicating books are still pricing him as if he possesses legitimate pop. This disconnect has created exceptional under value, evidenced by the +71.8% ROI on under bets versus a devastating -80.9% loss rate on overs. The timing of this sample is crucial - spanning from July 22nd to September 29th covers both the dog days of summer and the season's final month when fatigue typically peaks for catchers. Pagés's position behind the plate compounds this issue, as catchers historically show the steepest power decline as seasons progress due to accumulated wear. The six-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but a sustained power outage. His lone homer during this stretch appears increasingly like an outlier rather than a sign of dormant power awakening. The sample size, while not massive, spans enough games to establish a clear pattern of diminished extra-base ability.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pagés has demonstrated virtually no home run threat over this extended sample, with his 0.1 average creating a massive edge against inflated lines. The catcher position's inherent fatigue factor during this late-season stretch makes the under even more attractive. The primary risk is regression to career norms, but his current form suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his power outage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pedro Pagés's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Pedro Pagés has gone 1-9-0 on home run over/under props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once (10.0% rate). He's averaging only 0.1 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pedro Pagés Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Pedro Pagés home run props. His 90% under rate over 10 games, combined with a six-game streak without a homer, creates significant value against inflated lines that haven't adjusted to his power outage.
What's Pedro Pagés's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Pedro Pagés is averaging just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, creating a massive -0.4 differential from the standard 0.5 line. This represents one of the largest gaps between production and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pedro Pagés home run unders during late-season stretches when catcher fatigue peaks. His current form from July through September shows sustained power decline, making unders most valuable when books maintain inflated lines.