Patrick Bailey's Total Bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting at just 10.0% over the last 10 games with a catastrophic -1.8 differential from the 2.5 line. The Giants catcher is averaging 0.7 total bases while books continue setting inflated numbers, creating a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Patrick Bailey's Total Bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of offensive regression and role limitations that books haven't properly adjusted for. The Giants catcher is producing 0.7 total bases per game against a consistent 2.5 line, indicating oddsmakers are pricing him like a regular contributor rather than acknowledging his current offensive struggles. Bailey's 6-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects fundamental issues with his approach and the Giants' offensive ecosystem. As a defensive-first catcher batting in the lower third of the order, Bailey faces limited RBI opportunities and sees fewer quality pitches with runners in scoring position. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't a temporary slump but a systematic mispricing. September's sample size, while modest at 10 games, captures Bailey's role in a Giants lineup that's prioritized other offensive pieces. The concerning factor is the extreme nature of this trend—1-9 over rates rarely sustain indefinitely, suggesting either continued dominance or sharp regression. However, Bailey's underlying metrics and situational factors support the under bias more than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 10.0% over rate and -1.8 differential create clear value, but the extreme nature demands caution. Target Bailey Total Bases unders when he's batting seventh or lower against quality pitching, as his defensive role limits offensive upside. Primary risk is books finally adjusting the line downward or Bailey finding sudden power stroke.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Patrick Bailey props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Bailey's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Bailey has gone 1-9 on Total Bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. He's averaging 0.7 total bases per game against the typical 2.5 line, creating a massive -1.8 differential that has devastated over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Bailey Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Patrick Bailey's Total Bases props. The 10.0% over rate and 71.8% under ROI create clear value, especially when he's batting in the bottom third of the Giants lineup against quality pitching that limits his offensive opportunities.
What's Patrick Bailey's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Patrick Bailey is averaging 0.7 total bases over his last 10 games, significantly below the standard 2.5 line. This -1.8 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectation for any regular player prop.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bailey Total Bases unders when he's batting seventh or lower against above-average pitching. His defensive-first role and position in the Giants' lineup create the most favorable conditions for under bets to continue hitting.