Patrick Bailey's home run props present one of the sharpest under edges in baseball, hitting just 10.9% overs across 64 games with a devastating 28-game under streak. His 0.11 average sits 0.4 home runs below the standard 0.5 line. This is a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Bailey's home run futility represents a structural mismatch between his role and the betting market's expectations. As a defense-first catcher averaging 0.11 home runs per game against a 0.5 line, the Giants backstop lacks the raw power profile that generates consistent long balls. His 28-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it reflects his contact-oriented approach and limited extra-base power. The 79.1% ROI loss on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his home run potential, likely influenced by the occasional catcher who exceeds expectations. Bailey's defensive value keeps him in the lineup, but his offensive profile remains predictably limited. The absence of meaningful power splits suggests this isn't matchup-dependent but rather a fundamental skill limitation. With catchers historically showing less power development than position players, Bailey's trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. The market continues pricing him as a potential power threat when the data screams otherwise.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bailey's 10.9% over rate and 28-game under streak create an exceptional fade opportunity that the market hasn't properly adjusted for. The 0.4 home run gap between his average and the line represents massive value on unders. Primary risk is the inevitable variance that ends the streak, but the underlying power profile suggests continued under success even after occasional overs hit.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Bailey's Home Runs prop record all games?
Patrick Bailey has gone 7-57-0 on home run overs across 64 games, hitting just 10.9% overs with a current 28-game under streak. His under bets show a strong 70.0% ROI compared to devastating 79.1% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Bailey Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Bailey's home run props with high confidence. His 0.11 average sits 0.4 home runs below the typical 0.5 line, and his 28-game under streak reflects genuine power limitations rather than bad luck.
What's Patrick Bailey's average Home Runs all games?
Bailey averages 0.11 home runs per game compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a massive 0.4 home run differential. This gap represents one of the largest edges available in baseball props betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Bailey home run unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his power limitations appear universal. The best opportunities come when books maintain the 0.5 line despite his clear statistical profile favoring much lower totals.