Patrick Bailey's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, connecting just 20% of the time over his last 10 games with a brutal -0.9 differential against the 1.5 line. Bailey's averaging only 0.6 hits per game while delivering a stellar 52.7% ROI on unders, making the under side the clear value play.
Expert Analysis
Bailey's offensive struggles run deeper than simple bad luck, reflecting fundamental issues with his approach and role within the Giants' lineup. The catcher's 0.6 hits per game average represents a massive 60% shortfall from the standard 1.5 line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his current form. His position as a defensive-first catcher limits his plate appearances compared to everyday position players, while his spot typically in the lower third of the lineup reduces RBI opportunities that might extend at-bats. The consistency of this trend is particularly striking - Bailey has managed multiple hits in just two of ten games, with his longest over streak capped at a single game. This pattern indicates systematic issues rather than variance, whether from opposing pitcher preparation, mechanical adjustments, or simple regression from any earlier-season success. The 52.7% under ROI demonstrates the market's slow adaptation to Bailey's current reality, creating sustained value for sharp bettors. His recent two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, while the three-game under streak earlier this month shows how extended his cold spells can become.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bailey's 20% over rate and massive -0.9 differential create clear value on the under, especially with books seemingly slow to adjust the line downward. The ideal spot comes when he faces quality pitching or hits in pitcher-friendly environments. Main risk is a potential hot streak that could quickly shift this trend, but his consistent struggles suggest continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Bailey's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Patrick Bailey has gone over his hits prop just twice in his last 10 games for a 20% success rate, going 2-8-0 against the over/under. This represents one of the worst over rates among regular MLB players during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Bailey Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Patrick Bailey's hits props. His 0.6 average is nearly a full hit below the standard 1.5 line, and under bets have generated a strong 52.7% ROI over his last 10 games.
What's Patrick Bailey's average Hits last 10 games?
Patrick Bailey is averaging just 0.6 hits over his last 10 games, creating a massive -0.9 differential against the typical 1.5 hits line. This 60% shortfall represents significant under value in the current market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Patrick Bailey hits unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His defensive-first role and lower lineup position make him particularly vulnerable against strong opposing arms with limited plate appearance upside.