Patrick Bailey's Hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with a 30.8% over rate across 65 games and a massive -0.5 differential between his 0.8 average and the typical 1.3 line. The 32.2% under ROI against -41.3% over losses creates a clear mathematical edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Bailey's hitting struggles create one of the clearest prop edges in baseball, with the market consistently overvaluing his offensive output. His 0.8 hits per game average sits dramatically below the standard 1.3 line, suggesting sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to his limited offensive profile. As a defense-first catcher, Bailey's primary value lies in his work behind the plate rather than with the bat, making consistent hitting production unlikely. The 20-45 under record demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated expectations. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, while his longest under streak of six games shows how extended cold spells can develop. Without significant mechanical changes or a dramatic shift in approach, Bailey's offensive limitations appear structural rather than temporary. The -41.3% over ROI represents substantial losses for over bettors, while under backers have enjoyed profitable returns. This isn't a case of temporary struggles but rather a fundamental mismatch between market pricing and actual performance capabilities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bailey's 0.8 hits per game average creates a substantial mathematical edge against the typical 1.3 line, supported by strong 32.2% under ROI. The key driver is his defense-first profile limiting offensive opportunities. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or facing particularly weak pitching, but his consistent underperformance suggests the edge remains valid across most matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Bailey's Hits prop record all games?
Bailey's Hits prop record stands at 20-45-0 over/under across 65 games, producing just a 30.8% over rate. This translates to hitting the over in roughly 3 out of every 10 games, demonstrating consistent underperformance against market expectations throughout the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Bailey Hits all games?
Bet the under on Bailey's Hits props. His 0.8 hits per game average sits well below the typical 1.3 line, creating a mathematical edge supported by 32.2% under ROI. The market consistently overvalues his offensive output given his defense-first catching role.
What's Patrick Bailey's average Hits all games?
Bailey averages 0.8 hits per game compared to the standard 1.3 line, creating a significant -0.5 differential. This gap represents the core betting edge, as he consistently falls short of market expectations by roughly half a hit per game across the 65-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bailey's Hits unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his 30.8% over rate shows broad underperformance. Avoid betting when facing extremely weak pitching or in potential high-scoring games, but his structural offensive limitations make the under viable in most standard situations.