Parker Meadows presents one of the season's most reliable under opportunities with a brutal 25.0% over rate across 48 games. His 0.73 average sits 0.4 bases below typical lines, generating a massive 43.2% ROI on unders. This is a strong fade candidate.
Expert Analysis
Parker Meadows's total bases profile reveals a player fundamentally overvalued by oddsmakers throughout his sample period. Averaging just 0.73 total bases against lines typically set at 1.15, Meadows has delivered one of the most consistent under trends in baseball. The 25.0% over rate isn't just poor—it's systematically exploitable, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted for his limited power profile and contact issues. The -52.3% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his offensive ceiling, while sharp money has capitalized on the 43.2% under ROI. His longest under streak of 10 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, indicating structural issues rather than temporary slumps. The current single-game under streak suggests he's reverting to his dominant pattern after brief over variance. With no significant splits to complicate the analysis, this represents a clean, data-driven edge against a player whose ceiling rarely matches market expectations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Meadows's 25.0% over rate and 43.2% under ROI represent exceptional value in a market that consistently overrates his offensive output. The 0.4-base differential between his average and typical lines creates systematic profit opportunities. Primary risk involves small sample variance, but the 48-game dataset and 10-game under streak demonstrate remarkable consistency in this fade spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Parker Meadows props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Parker Meadows's Total Bases prop record all games?
Parker Meadows has gone 12-36-0 over/under on his Total Bases props across 48 games, hitting the over just 25.0% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Parker Meadows Total Bases all games?
Bet UNDER on Parker Meadows Total Bases props with high confidence. His 25.0% over rate and 43.2% under ROI create exceptional value, with his 0.73 average sitting well below typical 1.15 lines consistently.
What's Parker Meadows's average Total Bases all games?
Parker Meadows averages 0.73 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 1.15, creating a significant 0.4-base deficit. This gap represents the core value in consistently betting his unders throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Parker Meadows Total Bases unders in any game situation, as no splits data reveals vulnerable spots. His consistency across all conditions makes this a systematic play rather than situational, with 48 games showing uniform underperformance.