Ozzie Albies has been a total bases fade machine over his last 10 games, hitting the under at an 80% clip with a devastating 2-8 record. The Braves second baseman is averaging just 2.0 total bases against a typical 2.9 line, creating a massive -0.9 differential. This represents a strong lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Albies struggling to generate extra-base power during this 10-game sample from late May through September. His 2.0 average total bases sits nearly a full base below the standard 2.9 line, indicating either poor form, tough matchups, or both. The 20% over rate suggests this isn't random variance but a sustained downturn in offensive production. What's particularly compelling is the current five-game under streak, which shows the trend gaining momentum rather than regressing. The -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this fade has been for books. However, regression concerns are real given Albies's career track record as a capable power hitter. The lack of split data makes it difficult to identify specific conditions driving this underperformance, whether it's lefty-heavy matchups, road struggles, or injury-related decline. The timing spanning multiple months suggests this isn't just a brief cold spell but potentially reflects a deeper issue with his swing mechanics or approach. Still, elite hitters like Albies typically don't stay down this long without market adjustment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and -0.9 differential create legitimate value, especially with the current five-game under streak showing sustained momentum. Target this prop when Albies faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks where his power gets further suppressed. The main risk is inevitable regression to his career norms, but the trend appears strong enough to ride until clear signs of reversal emerge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Ozzie Albies props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ozzie Albies's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Ozzie Albies has gone 2-8 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. He's averaging 2.0 total bases against typical lines around 2.9, creating a significant -0.9 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ozzie Albies Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Ozzie Albies total bases props. The 80% under rate and -0.9 differential create clear value, especially with his current five-game under streak. This trend has produced +52.7% ROI for under bettors while destroying over investments.
What's Ozzie Albies's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Ozzie Albies is averaging just 2.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.9. This -0.9 differential represents nearly a full base of value for under bettors, indicating sustained offensive struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Albies total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The trend is strongest during his current form, but avoid betting after any multi-hit games that might signal regression beginning.