Ozzie Albies has been a consistent under performer on total bases props, hitting under in 69.2% of games (4-9-0 record) with an average of 1.85 versus a 2.58 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, the data strongly supports targeting the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose total bases production has been systematically overvalued by oddsmakers. Albies averaging 1.85 total bases against a consistent 2.58 line represents a massive -0.7 differential that suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a fundamental shift in his offensive approach that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. The 30.8% over rate across 13 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a sustained pattern indicating either diminished power or a more contact-oriented approach that prioritizes getting on base over extra-base hits. The current five-game under streak, representing his longest of the season, suggests this trend has momentum rather than being due for regression. What's particularly telling is the lack of any meaningful over streaks—his longest was just two games, indicating that even when Albies does exceed expectations, it's brief and unsustainable. The -41.3% ROI on overs versus +32.2% on unders creates a compelling mathematical edge that's difficult to ignore. Without contrary evidence like favorable matchups or park factors, this appears to be a player whose total bases props are consistently inflated.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 69.2% under rate and -0.7 average differential create a solid mathematical edge, especially during the current five-game under streak. Target this prop when lines remain in the 2.5+ range, as Albies has shown consistent inability to reach these elevated expectations. Main risk is potential lineup changes or rest affecting sample reliability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ozzie Albies's Total Bases prop record all games?
Ozzie Albies has gone 4-9-0 on total bases props in all games, hitting the over just 30.8% of the time. He's averaging 1.85 total bases against a typical 2.58 line, creating a significant -0.7 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ozzie Albies Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Ozzie Albies total bases props. The 69.2% under rate, -0.7 average differential, and +32.2% ROI on unders create a clear mathematical edge. His current five-game under streak adds momentum to this trend.
What's Ozzie Albies's average Total Bases all games?
Ozzie Albies averages 1.85 total bases per game, which falls 0.7 bases short of his typical 2.58 line. This substantial gap indicates his props are consistently overvalued, creating profitable under opportunities for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Albies total bases unders when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, especially during his current cold streak. Avoid when he shows signs of breaking out or faces particularly weak pitching that might inflate his extra-base hit potential.