Ozzie Albies has been a consistent under performer on his hits prop, going just 5-8-0 over/under (38.5% over rate) with a brutal -0.5 differential against the 1.5 line. The under has delivered a solid 17.5% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 26.6%. Lean under on Albies hits props.
Expert Analysis
Ozzie Albies's hits prop presents a compelling under case built on sustained underperformance and mathematical inefficiency. His 1.0 average against the standard 1.5 line creates a significant -0.5 gap that books haven't adequately adjusted for across 13 games. The 38.5% over rate suggests Albies consistently falls short of inflated expectations, likely due to his aggressive approach and tendency to work shallow counts. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of failing to reach multi-hit territory consistently. The 17.5% ROI on unders indicates the market hasn't properly recalibrated to Albies's actual production level, creating sustained value. While small sample size presents some regression risk, the consistency of the underperformance - never exceeding a two-game over streak - suggests this reflects genuine hitting profile limitations rather than random variance. The -26.6% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about the market's persistent overvaluation of Albies's hit-generating ability in this sample.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Albies's sustained underperformance against the 1.5 hits line, evidenced by his 1.0 average and 38.5% over rate, creates legitimate value on unders despite the limited 13-game sample. The current three-game under streak and consistent failure to string together over performances suggests this trend has staying power. Primary risk is sample size regression, but the mathematical edge and positive under ROI make this a defensible lean.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ozzie Albies's Hits prop record all games?
Ozzie Albies has gone 5-8-0 over/under on his hits prop across 13 games, hitting the over just 38.5% of the time. This translates to 5 overs, 8 unders, and no pushes against the standard 1.5 hits line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ozzie Albies Hits all games?
Bet under on Albies hits props. His 1.0 average against the 1.5 line creates a -0.5 gap, and unders have generated 17.5% ROI while overs lost 26.6%. The three-game under streak reinforces this edge.
What's Ozzie Albies's average Hits all games?
Albies averages exactly 1.0 hits per game in this 13-game sample, sitting 0.5 hits below the typical 1.5 line. This significant gap explains why he's hit the over just 38.5% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Albies hits unders when the line remains at 1.5, especially during his current form. The best opportunities come when books haven't adjusted for his consistent underperformance against inflated expectations.