Nolan Schanuel's total bases props present one of baseball's most reliable under opportunities, hitting just 28.3% overs across 99 games with a massive -1.0 differential from the standard 2.33 line. Currently riding five straight unders with a longest streak of nine, this trend shows remarkable consistency for disciplined under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Schanuel's total bases struggles stem from his contact-heavy approach that generates minimal extra-base production. Averaging just 1.31 total bases against a 2.33 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and reality for the Angels first baseman. His profile suggests a player who makes contact but lacks the power stroke necessary to consistently exceed inflated lines. The 36.9% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a systematic market inefficiency. Schanuel's approach generates singles and walks but rarely the doubles and home runs needed to clear 2+ total bases regularly. The Angels' offensive struggles compound this issue, as limited run support reduces opportunities for extra at-bats that could boost his totals. His current five-game under streak, following a season-long pattern of extended under runs, suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to his true production level. The -46.0% ROI on overs indicates severe overvaluation, while books continue setting lines that favor his ceiling rather than his consistent floor. This creates a sustainable edge for under bettors willing to fade the occasional hot streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schanuel's 28.3% over rate and -1.0 average differential create a clear mathematical edge for under bettors, though the sample size demands caution. The ideal spot comes when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or hot streaks that could temporarily inflate his production, but the underlying contact-over-power profile suggests sustainability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Schanuel's Total Bases prop record all games?
Nolan Schanuel has gone under his total bases prop in 71 of 99 games (28.3% overs) from August 2023 through September 2024, creating one of baseball's most consistent under trends with a remarkable -1.0 average differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Schanuel Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Schanuel's total bases props. His 28.3% over rate and 1.31 average against a 2.33 line create a clear mathematical edge, especially when lines stay at 2.5 or higher where the gap maximizes.
What's Nolan Schanuel's average Total Bases all games?
Schanuel averages 1.31 total bases per game compared to the typical 2.33 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential. This gap represents one of the largest systematic underperformances relative to market expectations in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schanuel total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the mathematical edge. Avoid betting during potential hot streaks or when facing weak pitching that might temporarily inflate his extra-base opportunities.