Nolan Schanuel's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going under in 60% of his last 10 games with a 0.9 average against a 1.2 line. The -0.3 differential and +14.6% under ROI signal clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Schanuel's recent hitting struggles paint a clear picture for sharp bettors willing to fade the young first baseman. His 0.9 hits per game average sits meaningfully below the typical 1.2 line, creating a -0.3 differential that represents genuine value rather than market inefficiency. The 40% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it reflects a hitter who's consistently falling short of modest expectations. Schanuel's current form suggests he's pressing at the plate, likely adjusting to major league pitching while dealing with the mental pressure of being a highly-drafted prospect. The under trend shows persistence with balanced streaks (longest over and under both at 3 games), indicating this isn't driven by a few outlier performances but rather consistent underperformance. What makes this trend particularly attractive is the market's apparent slow adjustment—books continue setting lines around 1.2 hits despite clear evidence Schanuel isn't reaching that threshold consistently. The +14.6% under ROI demonstrates this edge has been profitable, while the -23.6% over ROI shows how badly over bettors have been burned. Young players often experience extended slumps as they adapt to superior pitching, and Schanuel appears caught in that developmental phase where his hit tool hasn't translated to consistent big league production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schanuel's 0.9 average against 1.2 lines creates legitimate value, supported by a profitable 14.6% under ROI. The trend shows persistence without extreme streakiness, suggesting market inefficiency rather than variance. Primary risk is positive regression for a talented prospect, but current form favors continued underperformance against modest hit totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Schanuel's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Nolan Schanuel has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his hits props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This translates to 6 unders against 4 overs, making under bets profitable at +14.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Schanuel Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Schanuel's hits props. His 0.9 average sits well below typical 1.2 lines, creating consistent value. The 60% under rate and positive ROI support this approach, though moderate confidence given his prospect pedigree.
What's Nolan Schanuel's average Hits last 10 games?
Schanuel averages 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.3 hits short of the standard 1.2 line. This meaningful differential has created profitable opportunities for under bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schanuel hits unders when lines are set at 1.2 or higher, particularly during day games or against quality pitching. His current adjustment period suggests consistent value, but avoid when lines drop to 0.5 where variance increases significantly.