Nolan Gorman's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.5 average differential. The Cardinals second baseman is averaging only 1.1 total bases against typical lines around 2.6, creating exceptional under value with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Gorman's total bases collapse represents more than typical variance - it signals a fundamental shift in his offensive profile during this stretch. The 1.1 average against 2.6 lines reveals books haven't adjusted quickly enough to his diminished power output, creating persistent market inefficiency. His four-game under streak isn't just hot variance; it's the continuation of a player struggling to generate extra-base contact consistently. The -61.8% over ROI demonstrates how severely the market has mispriced his current form, while the 52.7% under ROI shows the sustainable edge available to sharp bettors. What makes this trend particularly exploitable is the binary nature of total bases props - Gorman needs multiple hits or extra-base contact to reach inflated lines, but his recent profile suggests singles-heavy production at best. The persistence of this under trend through 10 games indicates legitimate skill-level concerns rather than temporary bad luck. Books typically adjust player props slowly, especially for non-superstar players, meaning this edge could continue until Gorman shows sustained power resurgence. The lack of recent overs longer than two games suggests any positive regression will be gradual rather than explosive.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Gorman's total bases props remain significantly overpriced, with books slow to adjust to his power outage. The 1.5-base average shortfall creates immediate value on most under bets. Target games where he faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly conditions to maximize edge. Main risk is sudden power breakout, but his consistent singles-heavy approach suggests gradual improvement at best.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Nolan Gorman props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Gorman has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of 10 games (20% over rate) with a 2-8-0 record. He's averaging just 1.1 total bases against typical lines around 2.6, creating a significant -1.5 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with confidence. Gorman's 52.7% under ROI and consistent shortfall of 1.5 bases per game creates excellent value. His power outage appears genuine rather than variance, making unders the sharp play until he shows sustained extra-base improvement.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Gorman is averaging 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games, significantly below typical prop lines around 2.6. This -1.5 differential represents massive under value, as he's consistently falling short of market expectations by more than a full base per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games against quality starting pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks to maximize under edge. Avoid games where he faces struggling pitchers or in hitter-friendly conditions. His current form suggests unders provide value regardless, but optimal spots amplify the advantage further.