Nolan Gorman's hits prop shows a clear under bias in away games, connecting just 45.2% of the time over 42 games. The Cardinals second baseman averages 0.76 hits against a typical 0.86 line, creating a -0.1 differential that favors under bettors with +4.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's road struggles with the bat create a compelling under opportunity that the market consistently misprices. His 0.76 hits per away game average sits meaningfully below the standard 0.86 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his home-road split. The 19-23 over-under record translates to hitting the over less than half the time, while under bettors have generated positive returns at +4.5% ROI compared to the -13.6% loss rate on overs. This pattern spans from May 2023 through July 2024, providing substantial sample size credibility. Road hitting struggles often persist for young players like Gorman due to unfamiliar environments, different lighting conditions, and hostile crowds affecting timing and approach. The longest under streak of 8 games compared to just 4 consecutive overs further illustrates his tendency toward prolonged cold spells away from Busch Stadium. While Gorman possesses legitimate power potential, his contact issues become magnified on the road where comfort level drops. The consistency of this trend across different months and opponents suggests structural rather than random factors at play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nolan Gorman's road hitting deficiencies create sustainable value for under bettors, evidenced by the positive ROI and below-average hit rate. Target this when the line sits at 0.5 or 1.5 hits, particularly against quality opposing pitching where his contact struggles amplify. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or extended hot streaks that could temporarily override the underlying trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Hits prop record away games?
Nolan Gorman's hits prop record in away games stands at 19-23, meaning he's gone over just 45.2% of the time across 42 road contests from May 2023 through July 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Hits away games?
Bet under on Nolan Gorman's hits in away games. His 0.76 road average sits below typical lines, under bettors show +4.5% ROI, and he consistently struggles with contact away from St. Louis.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Hits away games?
Nolan Gorman averages 0.76 hits per away game compared to the standard 0.86 betting line, creating a -0.1 differential that consistently favors under bettors across his road sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nolan Gorman hits unders when the line is 0.5 or 1.5, especially against quality pitching staffs where his contact issues become more pronounced in unfamiliar road environments.