Nolan Gorman's hits props present a compelling under opportunity with just 28 overs in 73 games (38.4% rate). His 0.71 average sits 0.2 hits below the typical 0.92 line, generating +17.7% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Gorman's hits props.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's hits props reveal a systematic underperformance that creates consistent betting value. His 0.71 hits per game average falls meaningfully short of the standard 0.92 line, indicating oddsmakers consistently overestimate his contact ability. This 0.2-hit differential compounds over time, as evidenced by the stark 28-45 over-under record across 73 games. The current three-game under streak aligns with his broader pattern, though it's worth noting he did achieve a five-game over streak at some point, suggesting brief hot streaks are possible. However, his longest cold streak reached 11 games, demonstrating the persistence of his hitting struggles. The -26.8% ROI on overs tells the story of inflated expectations, while the +17.7% under ROI reflects the market's slow adjustment to Gorman's actual production level. His profile suggests a player whose power potential creates higher lines than his contact skills can consistently support, making him a prime candidate for systematic under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gorman's 0.71 average versus 0.92 lines creates a meaningful edge that has produced consistent under value over 73 games. The 38.4% over rate and +17.7% under ROI support this approach, though his five-game over streak shows he can get hot occasionally. Target unders when lines sit at 1.0 or higher, but avoid during clear hot streaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Hits prop record all games?
Nolan Gorman's hits prop record shows 28 overs and 45 unders across 73 games, resulting in a 38.4% over rate. This translates to unders hitting 61.6% of the time, demonstrating consistent value on the under side of his hits props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Hits all games?
Bet under on Nolan Gorman's hits props. His 0.71 average sits well below typical 0.92 lines, producing +17.7% ROI on unders versus -26.8% losses on overs. The 45-28 under-over record across 73 games confirms this edge.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Hits all games?
Nolan Gorman averages 0.71 hits per game across 73 games from May 2023 to August 2024. This sits 0.2 hits below the standard 0.92 line, creating a meaningful gap that consistently favors under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gorman hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 0.71 average and the posted number. Avoid betting during obvious hot streaks, but his 11-game longest under streak shows cold spells create extended value windows.