Noelvi Marte's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 8 overs in 35 games (22.9%). His 1.26 average falls 1.6 bases short of typical 2.84 lines, generating +47.3% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Marte's total bases.
Expert Analysis
Noelvi Marte's total bases performance reveals a systematic underperformance that creates consistent betting value. His 1.26 average against lines typically set around 2.84 represents a massive 55.6% shortfall, indicating oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his offensive limitations. The 22.9% over rate across 35 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a pattern rooted in Marte's profile as a young shortstop still developing his power stroke. His current seven-game under streak and previous seven-game under streak demonstrate the persistence of this trend. The -56.4% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating Marte's ability to reach inflated lines. This isn't about temporary struggles or bad luck; it's about a player whose skill set doesn't match the expectations built into these props. Marte's approach tends toward contact over power, limiting his extra-base hit frequency. The consistency of this underperformance—with only brief two-game over streaks as his longest hot runs—suggests oddsmakers are slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for sharp under bettors who recognize the disconnect between perception and reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.6-base average shortfall and 77.1% under rate create clear value, but proceed cautiously given limited contextual data about matchup-specific performance. Target games where Marte faces quality pitching or when lines remain inflated above 2.5 bases. The main risk is potential offensive breakout, though his consistent contact-over-power approach suggests this trend should persist.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Noelvi Marte's Total Bases prop record all games?
Noelvi Marte has gone under his total bases prop in 27 of 35 games (77.1%) with only 8 overs. His average of 1.26 total bases significantly trails typical lines around 2.84, creating a -1.6 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Noelvi Marte Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Noelvi Marte's total bases props. His 77.1% under rate and 1.6-base average shortfall create strong value. The +47.3% ROI on unders versus -56.4% on overs makes this a clear lean under situation.
What's Noelvi Marte's average Total Bases all games?
Noelvi Marte averages 1.26 total bases per game, falling 1.6 bases short of typical 2.84 lines. This 55.6% shortfall represents one of the largest gaps between performance and expectations in total bases props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Marte's total bases unders when lines remain above 2.5 bases or when he faces quality pitching. His contact-oriented approach and consistent underperformance create the best value when oddsmakers maintain inflated expectations.