Nico Hoerner's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. His 2.1 average sits 0.4 bases below the typical 2.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of offensive regression for Nico Hoerner over this stretch. His 2.1 total bases average represents a significant gap below standard pricing, suggesting either the market hasn't adjusted to his recent form or there are underlying factors suppressing his production. The 30% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it indicates a systematic shift in either his approach, opposing pitcher quality, or situational usage. What's particularly telling is the consistency of this underperformance, with only three games exceeding expectations out of ten attempts. The -0.4 differential between his average and the line creates mathematical value on unders, especially when considering the 33.6% ROI generated by betting that side. However, small sample variance remains a concern, and any return to his seasonal norms could quickly reverse this trend. The current two-game under streak, following a longest under streak of three games, suggests this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern worth exploiting while it persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with positive ROI creates legitimate value, but the 10-game sample demands caution. Target unders when Hoerner faces quality pitching or in day games where his splits might be weaker. The main risk is regression to his seasonal mean, which could happen quickly given his talent level and track record.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Nico Hoerner props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nico Hoerner's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Nico Hoerner has gone under his total bases prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 30% over rate. Under bettors would have generated a 33.6% ROI, while over bettors faced a devastating -42.7% loss rate during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nico Hoerner Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Nico Hoerner's total bases props. The 70% under rate and positive ROI create clear value, especially when his average of 2.1 sits well below typical 2.5 lines. Focus on spots against quality pitching for maximum edge.
What's Nico Hoerner's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Nico Hoerner has averaged 2.1 total bases over his last 10 games, sitting 0.4 bases below the standard 2.5 line. This gap represents the mathematical foundation for the strong under performance and continued betting value on that side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nico Hoerner total bases unders against above-average pitching staffs or in day games where offensive numbers typically decline. Avoid betting when he faces struggling pitchers or in hitter-friendly conditions that could trigger regression to his seasonal norms.