Nico Hoerner's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 24.1% over rate across 133 games with a massive -0.9 differential between his 1.33 average and typical 2.23 lines. This represents one of the most consistent under trends in baseball.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Nico Hoerner's offensive profile versus market expectations. His 1.33 total bases average sits nearly a full base below standard lines, creating consistent value on unders. This isn't a small sample fluke—133 games provide robust evidence of a fundamental disconnect between Hoerner's actual production and betting market pricing. The 13-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting sportsbooks have been slow to adjust to Hoerner's contact-over-power approach. As a second baseman who prioritizes getting on base over slugging, Hoerner's skill set naturally lends itself to singles and walks rather than extra-base hits. The -54.1% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, yet books continue setting lines that overestimate his power output. While regression is always possible, Hoerner's underlying approach and role in Chicago's lineup suggest this trend reflects his true talent level rather than temporary poor luck. The lack of meaningful over streaks (longest just 3 games) reinforces that his ceiling remains limited, making this one of the more reliable under plays in baseball props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hoerner's 24.1% over rate across 133 games represents exceptional value, with his 1.33 average creating nearly a full base of cushion below typical lines. The trend shows remarkable consistency with minimal over streaks, suggesting this reflects his true talent level rather than variance. Main risk is potential line adjustment, but until books adapt, this remains a premium under play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nico Hoerner's Total Bases prop record all games?
Hoerner's total bases record shows 32 overs and 101 unders across 133 games, translating to just a 24.1% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball props with a +45.0% ROI on under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nico Hoerner Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Hoerner's total bases props with high confidence. His 1.33 average sits nearly a full base below typical 2.23 lines, creating consistent value. The 24.1% over rate across 133 games provides strong evidence of market mispricing.
What's Nico Hoerner's average Total Bases all games?
Hoerner averages 1.33 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 2.23, creating a massive -0.9 differential. This nearly full-base cushion explains why unders hit at a 75.9% clip across his 133-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Any time Hoerner's total bases line sits at 2.0 or higher represents premium value for under bets. His contact-first approach and limited power ceiling make him ideal for under plays regardless of matchup or ballpark factors.