Nick Pivetta has been a strikeout under machine, hitting the under in 8 of his last 10 starts (20% over rate) while averaging 5.7 strikeouts against a 6.4 line. Currently riding a six-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Pivetta's strikeout struggles stem from a combination of reduced velocity, diminished command, and opposing hitters making better contact throughout the season's second half. His 5.7 strikeout average sits 0.7 below the typical 6.4 line, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his declining strikeout rate. The -61.8% ROI on overs versus +52.7% on unders tells the story of a pitcher whose stuff has deteriorated significantly from earlier seasons. The current six-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects fundamental changes in Pivetta's arsenal effectiveness. His fastball has lost bite, and hitters are laying off his breaking balls more consistently, leading to more balls in play rather than swings and misses. This trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression, as the underlying metrics support continued strikeout struggles. The consistency of this pattern across different opponents and game situations suggests this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects Pivetta's current form. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating ongoing value on strikeout unders until his peripherals show marked improvement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pivetta's 20% over rate and -0.7 average differential create clear value on strikeout unders, especially with his current six-game streak reflecting genuine skill decline rather than bad luck. Target this when lines remain at 6+ strikeouts. Main risk is a potential bounceback start against a strikeout-prone lineup, but the underlying metrics support continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Pivetta's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Pivetta has gone under his strikeouts prop in 8 of his last 10 games (2-8-0 record, 20% over rate). His average of 5.7 strikeouts sits 0.7 below the typical 6.4 line, creating a clear pattern favoring unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Pivetta Strikeouts last 10 games?
Bet the under on Pivetta's strikeouts. The 20% over rate, six-game under streak, and -61.8% ROI on overs create clear value. His declining stuff makes this trend sustainable rather than due for regression.
What's Nick Pivetta's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Pivetta averages 5.7 strikeouts over his last 10 games compared to a typical 6.4 line, creating a -0.7 differential. This gap indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his declining strikeout rate this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pivetta strikeout unders when lines remain at 6+ strikeouts, especially against average or better offensive teams. Avoid when facing bottom-tier lineups with high strikeout rates where variance could break the trend.