Nick Gonzales presents one of the strongest under trends in baseball, going just 5-26 on total bases overs at home with a devastating 16.1% success rate. The second-year infielder averages only 1.16 total bases against a typical 2.37 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Gonzales's home struggles reflect the classic profile of a young hitter still adjusting to major league pitching in familiar surroundings. The 1.2-base differential between his average and the standard line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited power output at PNC Park. His current seven-game under streak, part of a longer 10-game stretch, indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. The 60.1% ROI on unders over 31 games provides substantial sample size validation. Second-year players often show pronounced home/road splits as they face adjusted scouting reports, and Gonzales appears particularly vulnerable in Pittsburgh where opposing pitchers have extensive video and data. The lack of any meaningful hot streaks (longest over streak just one game) suggests his approach or swing mechanics create consistent contact issues that limit extra-base potential. Without significant mechanical adjustments or a dramatic change in approach, this trend appears sustainable through his developmental phase.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Gonzales's 16.1% over rate at home represents exceptional betting value that the market hasn't corrected. The 1.2-base average deficit creates consistent edges, particularly when lines sit at 2.5 or higher. Target games against quality pitching staffs where his contact struggles become magnified. Primary risk involves a sudden mechanical breakthrough, but his seven-game under streak suggests no immediate adjustment coming.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Gonzales's Total Bases prop record home games?
Nick Gonzales has gone 5-26 on total bases overs in home games, hitting just 16.1% of over bets. This represents one of the worst over rates among qualified players, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Gonzales Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Nick Gonzales's total bases props at home with high confidence. His 16.1% over rate and 1.2-base deficit to the line create exceptional value, particularly at 2.5+ lines.
What's Nick Gonzales's average Total Bases home games?
Nick Gonzales averages 1.16 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.37 line. This 1.2-base deficit consistently creates value on under bets throughout his home schedule.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nick Gonzales under bets at home against quality pitching staffs when lines are set at 2.5 or higher. His struggles are most pronounced in these spots with minimal over upside.