Nick Fortes presents one of baseball's most reliable under trends, going 0-22-0 on home run overs with a perfect 0.00% over rate. The Marlins catcher has never cleared the 0.5 home run line across 22 tracked games, generating +90.9% ROI on unders. This is a strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Fortes embodies the modern backup catcher profile that makes home run props consistently profitable on the under side. His 0-for-22 over record isn't a statistical fluke but reflects his role as a defense-first catcher with minimal power upside. The 0.5 line appears generous given his career trajectory and typical usage patterns. Backup catchers like Fortes face inherent disadvantages in power production due to irregular playing time, often entering games in defensive situations, and carrying lower offensive expectations from coaching staffs. His complete lack of home run production across this 22-game sample spans nearly a full calendar year, suggesting this isn't a temporary slump but rather his established ceiling. The -0.5 differential between his actual production and the betting line creates mathematical value that compounds over time. Regression concerns are minimal here because Fortes isn't underperforming his talent level—he's performing exactly as expected for a player in his role. The consistency of this trend across different opponents, ballparks, and game situations reinforces its reliability. Sportsbooks continue setting the line at 0.5, likely to attract over action from casual bettors who don't understand positional power dynamics.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Fortes has never cleared 0.5 home runs in 22 tracked games, making this one of baseball's most reliable under trends. The combination of his defensive-first role, limited power ceiling, and irregular playing time creates sustainable edge on unders. Ideal conditions exist in every game situation since his power limitations transcend matchups. Main risk is a random cheapie that barely clears the fence, but the 22-game sample size and role-based reasoning support continued under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Fortes's Home Runs prop record all games?
Nick Fortes has gone 0-22-0 on home run overs across all games, meaning he's never hit a home run in 22 tracked contests from August 2023 to June 2024. This represents a perfect 0.0% over rate with -100% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Fortes Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Nick Fortes home runs with high confidence. His 0-22-0 over record and backup catcher role create reliable edge. The 22-game sample spanning 10 months shows this isn't variance but his established power ceiling.
What's Nick Fortes's average Home Runs all games?
Nick Fortes averages 0 home runs per game against a 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This means he's consistently falling half a home run short of the betting line, providing mathematical edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Every game presents ideal conditions for betting Fortes home run unders given his role-based limitations. His power ceiling transcends matchups, ballparks, and game situations, making this trend reliable regardless of specific circumstances or opponents.