Mike Yastrzemski's away total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 35.1% overs across 37 road games. His 1.35 average sits 0.7 bases below the typical line, generating +23.8% ROI on unders. This road struggle creates consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Yastrzemski's road total bases performance reveals a player fundamentally altered by environment, averaging nearly a full base below expectation away from Oracle Park. The 13-24 over/under record isn't just poor luck—it represents a systematic inability to produce extra-base hits on the road. His 1.35 average suggests he's essentially a singles hitter away from home, likely struggling with unfamiliar pitcher backgrounds, different wind patterns, and varying dimensions that favor his swing at Oracle Park. The 9-game under streak demonstrates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Road environments appear to neutralize whatever advantages make Yastrzemski effective at home, whether that's familiarity with marine layer effects or specific sight lines. The -32.9% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this road decline, consistently setting lines too high. With such a large sample size showing consistent underperformance, regression seems unlikely—this appears to be Yastrzemski's true road talent level. The absence of recent hot streaks or positive splits suggests no catalyst for improvement.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Yastrzemski's road total bases props offer exceptional value with a 64.9% under hit rate and +23.8% ROI. The 0.7-base deficit from his average to typical lines creates consistent opportunities. Target unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, as his 1.35 road average makes these highly profitable. Main risk is a random hot streak, but the sample size and consistency suggest sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Yastrzemski's Total Bases prop record away games?
Mike Yastrzemski has gone under his total bases prop in 24 of 37 away games (64.9%), with only 13 overs. His road record shows consistent underperformance with a remarkable 9-game under streak as his longest.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Yastrzemski Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Mike Yastrzemski's total bases in away games. His 1.35 road average creates significant value when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, offering +23.8% ROI with high consistency.
What's Mike Yastrzemski's average Total Bases away games?
Mike Yastrzemski averages 1.35 total bases in away games, which sits 0.7 bases below the typical betting line of around 2.04. This substantial gap creates consistent under value opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Yastrzemski total bases unders in any away game when the line is 1.5 or higher. His road struggles appear consistent regardless of opponent, making every away game a potential under opportunity.