Mike Yastrzemski's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 35.4% overs across 82 games in 2024. The veteran outfielder averages 1.48 total bases against a typical 2.1 line, creating a significant -0.6 differential that has generated +23.4% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Yastrzemski's total bases struggles reflect the harsh reality of a 33-year-old outfielder's declining power production in a pitcher-friendly environment. His 1.48 average against the standard 2.1 line represents a massive 30% shortfall that speaks to fundamental changes in his offensive profile. The Giants' offensive struggles throughout 2024 compounded Yastrzemski's individual decline, as he faced more quality pitching in low-scoring games where extra-base opportunities became scarce. His 29-53 under record isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by reduced exit velocity, fewer hard-hit balls, and a team context that limited run-scoring situations. The -32.5% ROI on overs tells the story of books being slow to adjust to his diminished power, creating persistent value on the under. While his longest over streak reached eight games, it was bookended by longer under runs, including a nine-game stretch that highlighted his new offensive ceiling. The consistency of this trend across 82 games eliminates small sample concerns and suggests books may still be pricing him based on past performance rather than current reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Yastrzemski's systematic underperformance against inflated total bases lines creates one of the season's most reliable props. The 35.4% over rate across 82 games isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift in his offensive profile that books haven't fully recognized. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.48 average provides substantial cushion even accounting for positive regression.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Mike Yastrzemski props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Yastrzemski's Total Bases prop record all games?
Yastrzemski went 29-53-0 on total bases props in 2024, hitting the over just 35.4% of the time across 82 games. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among everyday players this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Yastrzemski Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Yastrzemski's total bases props. His 1.48 average against typical 2.1 lines creates substantial value, backed by +23.4% ROI on unders and systematic underperformance across 82 games.
What's Mike Yastrzemski's average Total Bases all games?
Yastrzemski averaged 1.48 total bases per game in 2024, falling 0.6 bases short of the standard 2.1 line. This 30% shortfall represents a significant gap between his production and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yastrzemski total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly matchups or when the Giants face quality starting pitching that limits extra-base opportunities.