Mike Yastrzemski's home run props have been fool's gold for over bettors, hitting just 40% in his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI. The Giants outfielder is averaging 0.4 homers against a typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Yastrzemski's power drought reflects both natural regression and situational factors that sharp bettors should recognize. His 0.4 home run average over this 10-game stretch sits meaningfully below the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.1 differential that compounds over multiple bets. The current three-game under streak isn't just variance—it's indicative of a player whose swing mechanics or approach may have shifted. September baseball often sees veteran players like Yastrzemski manage their bodies differently, potentially sacrificing raw power for contact and durability. The Giants' offensive philosophy during this stretch likely emphasized situational hitting over launch angle optimization, particularly as they navigated lineup changes and roster management. Most telling is the lopsided ROI split: while over bettors have hemorrhaged 23.6%, under backers have profited at a healthy 14.6% clip. This suggests the market has been slow to adjust to Yastrzemski's reduced power output, creating exploitable value. The persistence of this trend across 10 games indicates more than small sample noise—there's likely an underlying mechanical or strategic shift that books haven't fully incorporated into their lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Yastrzemski's power metrics show clear deterioration with the market slow to adjust, creating consistent under value. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, especially in day games or against quality pitching where his contact-over-power approach becomes more pronounced. Main risk is a sudden return to form that could quickly erase the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Yastrzemski's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Yastrzemski has gone 4-6-0 over/under on home run props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This translates to 6 unders versus 4 overs, with no pushes recorded during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Yastrzemski Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Yastrzemski's home run props. His 40% over rate and -23.6% ROI for over bettors creates clear value on the under side, which has generated positive 14.6% returns.
What's Mike Yastrzemski's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Yastrzemski is averaging 0.4 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.1 below the typical 0.5 line. This differential represents the core value proposition for under bettors in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yastrzemski home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, particularly in day games or against quality starting pitching. His current approach favors contact over power, making these conditions optimal for under value.