Mike Trout's total bases prop shows a pronounced away game weakness, hitting under in 67% of road contests (4-8-0 record). Despite averaging 1.83 total bases against a typical 1.75 line, the under delivers +27.3% ROI while overs hemorrhage -36.4%. This creates a clear lean toward the under in away games.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a stark reality about Trout's road performance that contradicts his reputation. While his 1.83 average suggests he should clear most lines, the 67% under rate indicates consistent underperformance relative to expectations. This disconnect likely stems from road-specific factors affecting his power output - unfamiliar ballparks, different sight lines, and the psychological pressure of hostile environments. The current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, suggesting this isn't random variance but a legitimate trend. What makes this particularly compelling is the ROI disparity: unders profit at 27.3% while overs lose over a third of invested capital. The sample size of 12 games provides meaningful data without being overwhelming, and the consistency of the pattern (never more than two consecutive overs) suggests structural issues rather than temporary slumps. Road games historically challenge even elite hitters due to travel fatigue, unfamiliar backdrops, and reduced comfort levels. For a player of Trout's caliber to consistently underperform away from home indicates these environmental factors significantly impact his extra-base hit frequency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 67% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a favorable betting environment, particularly given Trout's current three-game under streak. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as his 1.83 average suggests vulnerability to regression. The main risk lies in Trout's elite talent potentially breaking through, but the consistent road struggles outweigh star power concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Trout's Total Bases prop record away games?
Mike Trout's total bases prop in away games shows a 4-8-0 record, hitting under 67% of the time across 12 games. This represents a significant underperformance despite his elite status and reputation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Trout Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Mike Trout's total bases in away games. The 67% under rate with +27.3% ROI creates a profitable opportunity, especially during his current three-game under streak.
What's Mike Trout's average Total Bases away games?
Mike Trout averages 1.83 total bases in away games, just 0.08 above the typical 1.75 line. Despite this slight edge, he fails to cover 67% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trout's total bases under when the line is 1.5 or higher in road games, particularly during under streaks. Avoid after extended home stands when confidence might be elevated.