Mike Trout's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with a brutal 25.7% over rate across 35 games. His 0.26 average sits significantly below the typical 0.5 line, generating a -50.9% ROI on overs versus +41.8% on unders. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Mike Trout's power decline from his peak years. Averaging just 0.26 home runs per game against a standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.2 differential that books haven't fully adjusted for. This isn't just bad luck—it represents a fundamental shift in Trout's offensive profile. The sample size of 35 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency is remarkable: only 9 overs in 35 attempts with a current 4-game under streak. What's most telling is the severity of the ROI split. A -50.9% return on overs doesn't happen by accident in a sample this large. It suggests either declining bat speed, changed approach, or physical limitations affecting his power output. The longest under streak of 7 games shows this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern. While regression toward league averages is always possible, the data suggests books are still pricing Trout based on reputation rather than current performance. The 41.8% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but public perception keeps the lines inflated.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 25.7% over rate and -0.2 average differential create a clear mathematical edge, but Trout's elite pedigree prevents maximum conviction. Target games where the line stays at 0.5, especially during day games or against quality pitching where his reduced power becomes more pronounced. Main risk is a hot streak that could quickly erode this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Trout's Home Runs prop record all games?
Mike Trout's home run prop record shows 9 overs and 26 unders across 35 games, producing a dismal 25.7% over rate. This translates to a -50.9% ROI on overs while unders generated +41.8% returns for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Trout Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Mike Trout's home run props. His 0.26 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential. The 25.7% over rate and +41.8% under ROI make this a clear mathematical edge.
What's Mike Trout's average Home Runs all games?
Mike Trout averages 0.26 home runs per game, significantly below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.2 differential represents a substantial gap that books haven't fully adjusted for, creating value on the under across his recent sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Trout home run unders when the line stays at 0.5, particularly in day games or against quality pitching. His reduced power output becomes more pronounced in challenging conditions, maximizing the edge from this trend.