Miguel Rojas presents a compelling under opportunity with just 37.8% overs across 37 games, falling short of his 2.42 total bases line by 0.8 bases per game. The veteran shortstop's consistent underperformance generates an 18.7% ROI betting unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Miguel Rojas struggling to reach inflated total bases expectations in 2024. His 1.62 average falls significantly short of the typical 2.42 line, creating a substantial 0.8-base deficit that translates to consistent value on the under. This pattern reflects the reality of Rojas's role as a defensive specialist rather than an offensive catalyst for the Dodgers. At 35 years old, Rojas lacks the power upside that drives total bases props, with his game built around contact and situational hitting rather than extra-base production. The 14-23 under record demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and player capability. His longest under streak of 9 games shows how prolonged these cold stretches can be, while even his longest over streak maxed at just 4 games. The -27.8% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about betting against this trend. Without significant lineup changes or a dramatic shift in approach, Rojas's total bases props should continue favoring the under, particularly given his established role as a table-setter rather than run producer in one of baseball's most potent offenses.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Rojas's consistent underperformance against his total bases line creates legitimate value, with the 18.7% under ROI backed by a large sample size. The main risk lies in potential lineup changes or facing weaker pitching that could inflate his numbers, but his age and skill set suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Miguel Rojas's Total Bases prop record all games?
Miguel Rojas has gone under his total bases prop in 23 of 37 games (62.2%) while hitting over just 14 times. His under record generates a positive 18.7% ROI compared to -27.8% betting overs consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Miguel Rojas Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Miguel Rojas total bases props. His 1.62 average falls 0.8 bases short of typical lines, creating consistent value with a proven 23-14 under record and positive ROI backing the trend.
What's Miguel Rojas's average Total Bases all games?
Miguel Rojas averages 1.62 total bases per game against a typical 2.42 line, creating a significant 0.8-base deficit. This gap represents the core value driving his strong under performance throughout the 2024 season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Miguel Rojas total bases unders consistently, as his 62.2% under rate shows little situational variance. Focus on games where his line sits at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality.