Miguel Amaya's total bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity with an 8-25-0 record (24.2% overs) and brutal -1.2 differential from the typical 2.2 line. His 0.97 average demonstrates consistent underperformance, creating a strong lean under with systematic value.
Expert Analysis
Miguel Amaya's home total bases trend reveals a catcher struggling against the inflated expectations built into his prop lines. Averaging just 0.97 total bases against a standard 2.2 line creates a massive 1.23-base gap that speaks to fundamental offensive limitations at Wrigley Field. The 24.2% over rate across 33 games isn't variance—it's a pattern rooted in Amaya's contact-heavy approach that rarely translates to extra-base power at home. His 14-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, likely driven by Chicago's pitcher-friendly home environment and Amaya's role as a defense-first catcher with limited offensive upside. The +44.6% ROI on unders validates this isn't just a cold streak but a structural mismatch between market expectations and reality. Catchers often face additional fatigue factors at home during extended homestands, and Amaya's profile suggests a player whose modest power doesn't translate well to Wrigley's dimensions. The complete absence of meaningful over streaks (longest just 3) reinforces that this isn't a player prone to sudden offensive explosions. This trend appears sustainable given Amaya's established role and skill set.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Miguel Amaya's 0.97 home average against typical 2.2 lines creates consistent value, supported by his 76% under rate and +44.6% ROI. The structural mismatch between his contact-oriented approach and inflated power expectations makes unders the clear play. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or unusually favorable matchups against struggling pitching.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 6.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Miguel Amaya's Total Bases prop record home games?
Miguel Amaya's total bases prop record at home games is 8-25-0, hitting the over just 24.2% of the time across 33 games from 2023 to 2024, creating strong under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Miguel Amaya Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Miguel Amaya's total bases at home games. His 0.97 average against typical 2.2 lines and 76% under rate provide consistent value with +44.6% ROI on under bets.
What's Miguel Amaya's average Total Bases home games?
Miguel Amaya averages 0.97 total bases in home games, running 1.23 bases below the typical 2.2 line. This massive differential creates one of the most reliable under trends available.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Miguel Amaya total bases unders during homestands when fatigue accumulates and against average-to-good pitching. Avoid when facing struggling bullpens or in must-win situations late in seasons.