Michael Harris II has dramatically underperformed his total bases props, going 3-7-0 over/under with a crushing -0.7 differential from the 3.5 line. The under has delivered a robust 33.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged -42.7%. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Harris II's total bases struggles reflect a concerning pattern that extends beyond typical variance. Averaging just 2.8 total bases against a 3.5 line represents a significant 20% underperformance that suggests either the market is overvaluing his recent production or he's dealing with underlying issues affecting his power output. The 30% over rate is particularly damaging given the juice typically required on these props. What makes this trend especially compelling is its consistency — Harris II has hit the under in 7 of 10 games, including his current 3-game under streak. The longest over streak managed just 2 games, while he's recorded a 4-game under run during this sample. This isn't just bad luck; it's systematic underperformance. The -42.7% ROI on overs represents catastrophic losses for anyone betting that side, while under bettors have been rewarded with solid 33.6% returns. Late-season fatigue could be a factor, as center fielders often see their power numbers decline as the season wears on. Without splits data to identify specific vulnerabilities, the raw performance gap becomes even more significant as our primary indicator.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Harris II's 20% underperformance against the 3.5 line creates a meaningful edge, especially with the under delivering 33.6% ROI. The consistency of this trend — 7 unders in 10 games — suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic issue. Main risk is potential positive regression, but the late-season timing and sustained nature of the underperformance support continued under betting until the market adjusts or Harris II shows clear signs of breaking the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Harris II's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Harris II has gone 3-7-0 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He's averaging 2.8 total bases against a typical 3.5 line, creating a -0.7 differential that strongly favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Harris II Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Harris II's total bases props. His 20% underperformance against the line has generated 33.6% ROI for under bettors while overs have lost 42.7%. The trend shows consistency with 7 unders in 10 games.
What's Michael Harris II's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Harris II is averaging 2.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 3.5 line. This -0.7 differential represents a significant 20% underperformance that creates a meaningful betting edge for the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris II total bases unders in late-season games when fatigue factors are most pronounced. His current form shows particular weakness with 3 straight unders and 7 of 10 overall, making any 3.5+ line an attractive under opportunity.