Michael Harris II's total bases prop at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 16 of 18 games (11.1% over rate) with a devastating -1.8 differential from the typical 2.67 line. This represents a clear systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Michael Harris II's home performance that oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for. Averaging just 0.83 total bases per home game against lines consistently set around 2.67 creates a massive 1.8-base cushion for under bettors. This isn't a small sample fluke—18 games spanning the entire 2024 season reveals a persistent pattern. The current nine-game under streak demonstrates the trend's momentum, while the complete absence of any over streaks longer than one game shows remarkable consistency. Harris appears to face different challenges at Truist Park, whether from familiar opposing pitching staffs who've studied his tendencies, pressure from home expectations, or simply park-specific factors affecting his power output. The -78.8% ROI on overs versus +69.7% on unders quantifies just how profitable this fade has been. Most concerning for over bettors is the trend's persistence throughout different months and situations, suggesting this isn't weather or opponent-dependent but reflects a fundamental home/road split in Harris's performance profile.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Michael Harris II's home total bases props offer exceptional value with a proven 88.9% hit rate over a full season sample. The 1.8-base average shortfall creates substantial margin for error, while the nine-game under streak shows no signs of regression. Target this prop aggressively when Harris plays at Truist Park, as oddsmakers continue setting lines that ignore this glaring home/road disparity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Harris II's Total Bases prop record home games?
Michael Harris II went 2-16 on total bases overs in home games during 2024, hitting just 11.1% of over bets. He averaged 0.83 total bases per home game against lines typically set around 2.67, creating a massive 1.8-base differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Harris II Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER on Michael Harris II's total bases props at home games. The 88.9% under rate with a 1.8-base average shortfall provides exceptional value, while the current nine-game under streak shows continued momentum.
What's Michael Harris II's average Total Bases home games?
Michael Harris II averages 0.83 total bases in home games, significantly below the typical 2.67 line set by oddsmakers. This 1.8-base differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations in baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Michael Harris II total bases unders specifically during Braves home games at Truist Park. The trend shows consistency across all situations, making any home game an ideal betting opportunity regardless of opponent or other factors.