Michael Harris II's home run prop at home presents one of the season's most reliable under trends, posting a perfect 0-17-0 record with zero home runs across 17 home games. The -0.5 differential against the 0.5 line creates exceptional value for under bettors seeking consistent returns.
Expert Analysis
Michael Harris II's complete absence of home runs at Truist Park reveals a player whose power profile fundamentally shifts between venues. While Harris has shown occasional pop on the road, his home environment appears to suppress his already modest power output entirely. The 0-17-0 record isn't just impressive—it's unprecedented for a regular starter across a full season sample. This trend persists despite Harris maintaining reasonable contact rates and playing time, suggesting environmental factors at Truist Park specifically neutralize his power potential. The ballpark's dimensions and atmospheric conditions likely contribute, but Harris's swing mechanics and approach may also favor gap-to-gap hitting over launch angle optimization. The consistency of this trend across varying game situations, opposing pitchers, and seasonal conditions indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental characteristic of Harris's home performance. The -100% ROI on overs speaks to books potentially overvaluing his power based on overall metrics rather than venue-specific data. With no recorded home runs despite 17 opportunities, regression becomes increasingly unlikely as the sample size validates the trend's legitimacy rather than challenging it.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Harris's perfect 0-17-0 home run record at home creates exceptional under value, particularly when books set the line at 0.5. The complete absence of power at Truist Park appears systemic rather than coincidental, making this one of the season's most reliable props. Risk remains minimal given the overwhelming sample size and consistency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Michael Harris II props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Harris II's Home Runs prop record home games?
Michael Harris II is 0-17-0 on his home run prop in home games, with zero total home runs across 17 games. This perfect under record against the typical 0.5 line represents one of the season's most consistent trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Harris II Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Harris has zero home runs in 17 home games, creating exceptional value when books set the line at 0.5. This trend shows no signs of regression given the substantial sample size.
What's Michael Harris II's average Home Runs home games?
Harris averages exactly 0.0 home runs per home game compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap between performance and expectation drives the prop's exceptional under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Every home game presents optimal conditions for Harris home run unders, but focus on day games and matchups against quality pitching when books might inflate the line to +0.5, maximizing your edge.