Michael Harris II's home run production craters on the road, hitting just 26.3% of overs across 19 away games with a brutal -0.2 differential versus the typical line. The under has delivered a robust 40.7% ROI while overs have been catastrophic at -49.8%. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Harris II's road struggles with the long ball represent one of the season's most reliable betting trends, rooted in fundamental baseball dynamics that show little sign of regression. His 0.32 home runs per away game average sits meaningfully below the standard 0.55 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 73.7% under rate across 19 games provides robust sample size validation, while the current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern. Road environments typically suppress power numbers due to unfamiliar backdrops, varying wind patterns, and hostile crowds that can affect timing and approach. Harris II's profile as a contact-oriented center fielder makes him particularly susceptible to these road power dampening effects. The -49.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to his road limitations, consistently setting lines too high. His longest over streak reached just two games, while under streaks have extended to four, demonstrating the persistence of this trend. The lack of meaningful regression over nearly five months of data suggests this isn't variance but a genuine skill-based edge rooted in Harris II's hitting profile and approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence represents the clear play on Michael Harris II's road home run props. The 73.7% under rate backed by a +40.7% ROI creates a systematic edge that the market hasn't corrected. Target this bet in any road venue, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks where his already suppressed power gets further dampened. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but his three-game under streak and season-long consistency suggest continued value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Harris II's Home Runs prop record away games?
Michael Harris II has gone 5-14 on home run overs in away games, hitting just 26.3% of his overs with an average of 0.32 home runs per road game compared to the typical 0.55 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Harris II Home Runs away games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Harris II's 73.7% under rate in away games has generated a +40.7% ROI while overs have been catastrophic at -49.8%. The trend shows remarkable consistency.
What's Michael Harris II's average Home Runs away games?
Harris II averages 0.32 home runs per away game, sitting 0.23 below the standard 0.55 line. This significant differential creates consistent value on under bets throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris II's home run unders in any away game, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His road power suppression has been consistent regardless of opponent, making this a reliable systematic edge.