Michael Busch has been a home run desert over his last 10 games, going 1-9 under with just 0.2 homers per game against a 0.5 line. Currently riding an 8-game under streak, this trend represents one of the strongest power fade opportunities in baseball.
Expert Analysis
Michael Busch's power outage represents a fundamental shift from whatever baseline established his 0.5 home run line. Averaging just 0.2 homers per game over this 10-game stretch, Busch has managed only one long ball while failing to reach the over in nine consecutive opportunities. This 90% under rate suggests either a mechanical issue, approach change, or simple regression from an earlier hot streak that inflated his line. The -0.3 differential between his actual production and the betting line creates immediate value, as books appear slow to adjust to his current form. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its consistency—Busch isn't alternating between power displays and quiet games, but rather showing sustained inability to generate the exit velocity and launch angle needed for home runs. The 8-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. While all cold streaks eventually end, the severity of this power drought combined with the inflated line suggests continued value on the under. The key risk is regression to his season mean, but given the sample size and consistency, this appears to be Busch's current true talent level rather than temporary slump.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Michael Busch's sustained power outage makes the under 0.5 home runs a premium play. With 0.2 homers per game over 10 contests and an active 8-game under streak, the line hasn't properly adjusted to his current form. Target this prop in all game situations until Busch shows signs of breaking out or the line drops significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Busch's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Michael Busch has gone 1-9 under on his home run props over the last 10 games, hitting the over just once while failing nine times. This represents a 10% over rate with devastating -80.9% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Busch Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Michael Busch's home runs with high confidence. His 0.2 average against a 0.5 line, combined with an 8-game under streak and 90% under rate, makes this one of the strongest power fade opportunities available.
What's Michael Busch's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Michael Busch is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.3 homers below the typical 0.5 betting line. This significant differential indicates the market hasn't adjusted to his current power outage.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Michael Busch's home run under in all situations until his form changes or the line adjusts. His consistent power struggles across this 10-game sample suggest the trend transcends specific matchups or park factors.