Max Schuemann's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 17 of 18 home games (5.6% over rate) while averaging just 0.06 home runs against a 0.5 line. This extreme differential creates exceptional under value despite the brutal -0.5 line requiring zero home runs.
Expert Analysis
Schuemann's home run futility at the Coliseum reflects both his contact-oriented profile and Oakland's pitcher-friendly environment. The Athletics' cavernous ballpark suppresses power numbers significantly, particularly for gap hitters like Schuemann who lack elite exit velocity. His 0.06 home run average at home represents a massive 89% shortfall from the standard 0.5 line, indicating sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted for his specific power limitations in this venue. The sustainability of this trend hinges on Schuemann maintaining his current role and approach. As a utility infielder prioritizing contact over power, he's unlikely to suddenly develop home run stroke, especially in Oakland's expansive dimensions. The 10-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between his skillset and the betting market's expectations. The primary risk lies in potential lineup changes or mechanical adjustments that could unlock modest power, but his track record suggests home runs remain an anomaly rather than expectation. Weather and opposing pitching quality provide minimal impact given the overwhelming trend strength.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Schuemann's 17-1 under record at home creates extraordinary value despite the challenging -0.5 line requiring zero home runs. His contact-first approach combined with the Coliseum's power-suppressing dimensions makes this trend highly sustainable. The 89% shortfall from the betting line represents a fundamental market inefficiency that should persist given his established profile and role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Max Schuemann's Home Runs prop record home games?
Max Schuemann has gone under his home runs prop in 17 of 18 home games (94.4% under rate) in 2024, with just one over occurring during this dominant trend spanning from April through September.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Max Schuemann Home Runs home games?
Bet the under on Max Schuemann's home runs props at home games. The 17-1 record and 0.06 average versus 0.5 line creates exceptional value despite requiring zero home runs to win.
What's Max Schuemann's average Home Runs home games?
Max Schuemann averages 0.06 home runs in home games compared to the standard 0.5 betting line, creating a massive 0.44 differential that represents an 89% shortfall from market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Max Schuemann's home runs under during any Oakland home game, as the Coliseum's dimensions and his contact profile create consistent value regardless of opponent or weather conditions.