Masyn Winn's total bases prop has been a consistent under performer at home, hitting just 39.0% overs across 41 games with a brutal -0.4 differential versus the typical line. The Cardinals shortstop is currently riding a 5-game under streak, extending his pattern of underwhelming home offensive production.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Winn struggling to generate offensive production at Busch Stadium. His 1.46 average total bases falls significantly short of the 1.87 typical line, creating a substantial -0.4 differential that translates to real betting value on the under. This isn't just a small sample quirk—41 games represents nearly a quarter of a full season's worth of data, providing statistical significance to the trend. The -25.5% ROI on overs tells the story of consistent line inflation, while the +16.4% under ROI demonstrates the market's failure to properly adjust. Winn's current 5-game under streak, part of a longer 6-game under run, suggests this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. The Cardinals' home ballpark factors likely contribute, as Busch Stadium's dimensions and conditions may not favor Winn's particular skill set. His contact-oriented approach appears less effective in familiar surroundings, possibly due to opposing pitchers having better scouting reports or defensive positioning. The consistency of this underperformance—with overs hitting at a dismal 39% clip—indicates fundamental issues rather than temporary slumps that typically regress to the mean.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 39% over rate and -0.4 differential provide clear mathematical edges, while the current 5-game under streak reinforces the pattern. Target this play when lines sit at 1.8 or higher, as the gap between Winn's 1.46 home average and inflated expectations creates optimal value. The main risk lies in potential lineup changes or hot streaks that could temporarily break the trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Masyn Winn props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Masyn Winn's Total Bases prop record home games?
Winn's total bases prop at home shows a 16-25-0 record, hitting overs just 39.0% of the time across 41 games. His average of 1.46 total bases consistently falls short of typical 1.87 lines, creating a -0.4 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Masyn Winn Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Winn's total bases at home. The 39% over rate and -0.4 differential provide clear mathematical edges, supported by a +16.4% ROI on under bets versus -25.5% losses on overs.
What's Masyn Winn's average Total Bases home games?
Winn averages 1.46 total bases in home games, falling 0.4 bases short of the typical 1.87 line. This consistent underperformance has produced just 16 overs in 41 home games since August 2023.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Winn's total bases unders when lines reach 1.8 or higher at home games. His 1.46 average creates maximum value against inflated expectations, especially during his documented struggles at Busch Stadium.