Manny Machado's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the last 10 games with a brutal -2.2 differential versus the line. The Padres slugger is averaging only 1.6 total bases against a typical 3.8 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Manny Machado's precipitous decline in total bases production reflects a perfect storm of diminished power and contact issues that books haven't fully adjusted for. The veteran third baseman's 1.6 average represents a massive 58% shortfall from his typical 3.8 line, suggesting either injury concerns or a fundamental shift in his approach at the plate. The consistency of this underperformance is striking—Machado has managed just two overs in 10 games, with his longest under streak reaching five games. This isn't random variance; it's a sustained pattern that indicates either physical limitations or opposing pitchers successfully exploiting a weakness. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that's been slow to recognize Machado's current limitations. While regression toward career norms is always possible, the severity and persistence of this downturn suggests structural issues rather than temporary slump. The current three-game under streak reinforces the trend's staying power, and without clear evidence of improvement in Machado's underlying metrics, this total bases fade appears sustainable in the near term.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Manny Machado's total bases props offer exceptional under value with an 80% hit rate and +52.7% ROI over his last 10 games. The 2.2-base differential between his average and typical lines creates a significant edge that books haven't corrected. Target this under in all game situations until Machado shows clear signs of power resurgence or lines adjust meaningfully downward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Manny Machado's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Manny Machado has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% under rate) with just 2 overs. This 2-8-0 record represents one of the most lopsided trends in recent baseball betting, delivering consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Manny Machado Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Manny Machado's total bases props with high confidence. His 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI over 10 games, combined with a 2.2-base average shortfall from typical lines, creates exceptional betting value that books haven't corrected.
What's Manny Machado's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Manny Machado is averaging just 1.6 total bases over his last 10 games compared to his typical 3.8 line. This represents a massive -2.2 differential, meaning he's falling short by nearly 60% of expectations consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Machado total bases unders in all situations given the trend's consistency across his last 10 games. The edge appears strongest when lines remain at 3.5+ total bases, as books haven't adequately adjusted for his current diminished power output.