Manny Machado's home run production has cratered over his last 10 games, going under in 90% of contests with just 0.2 homers per game against typical 0.5 lines. This represents an extreme power drought for a player who typically maintains steady production, creating significant under value.
Expert Analysis
Manny Machado's recent home run struggles represent one of the most dramatic power droughts we've tracked this season. Averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests while facing consistent 0.5 lines creates a massive -0.3 differential that screams systematic underperformance. The 90% under rate isn't just bad luck—it suggests either mechanical issues, fatigue from the season's grind, or potentially undisclosed physical limitations affecting his swing mechanics. The six-game under streak within this sample reinforces the persistence of whatever is hampering Machado's power output. What makes this trend particularly compelling is Machado's typically consistent power profile throughout his career. Players of his caliber don't simply lose their ability to drive the ball overnight, which suggests this drought has identifiable causes that haven't been resolved. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors getting burned repeatedly by expecting normal Machado production. However, the extreme nature of this trend also raises regression concerns. Eventually, Machado should find his swing again, but the data suggests that moment hasn't arrived yet, making this a prime spot to continue fading his power until we see concrete signs of improvement.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Machado's 90% under rate over 10 games with a -0.3 per-game differential represents exceptional value on the under side. The persistent nature of this power drought, evidenced by multiple extended under streaks, suggests underlying issues that haven't been resolved. Target under bets when lines remain at 0.5, as books haven't fully adjusted to his current form. Primary risk is sudden regression to career norms.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Manny Machado's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Machado has gone 1-9-0 on over/under his home run props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once (10% rate). He's averaging 0.2 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a significant -0.3 per-game deficit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Manny Machado Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Machado's 90% under rate and -0.3 per-game differential against the line represents exceptional value. His power drought shows persistence through multiple streaks, suggesting underlying issues that haven't been resolved yet.
What's Manny Machado's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Machado is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests. This falls significantly short of the typical 0.5 line he faces, creating a -0.3 differential that represents one of the season's most dramatic power droughts.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Machado home run unders when lines remain at 0.5, as books haven't fully adjusted to his current form. Day games and tough pitching matchups amplify the edge, while avoiding potential bounce-back spots against weak pitching provides optimal timing.